AfD Leads Germany by Ten Points as CDU/CSU Falls to 19%
September 27, 2026 · Frisian News
Photo: Wikimedia Commons
The INSA Sonntagstrend puts the AfD at 29 percent and CDU/CSU at 19 percent, a ten-point gap and the union's lowest reading of the current legislative period. The governing coalition of CDU/CSU and SPD now polls at just 33 percent combined.
The AfD leads CDU/CSU by ten percentage points in Germany's latest national poll. The Sonntagstrend published on September 26 by INSA for Bild am Sonntag put the AfD at 29 percent and CDU/CSU at 19 percent, the union's lowest reading of the current legislative period, according to nius.de.
That ten-point gap overturns the February 2025 election result, when CDU/CSU won 28.5 percent and the AfD took 20.8 percent, according to bundestagwahlumfrage.de. The positions have now reversed.
The governing coalition of CDU/CSU and SPD combined for 49 percent at that election. They now poll at 33 percent together, according to the INSA survey reported by nius.de. The SPD sits at 14 percent, up one point. Bundestagwahlumfrage.de, which aggregates five institutes, places CDU/CSU down 7.9 points from the election and the AfD up 7.2 points.
INSA surveyed 1,203 people between September 21 and 25 for Bild am Sonntag, as reported by halleon.de. The five-institute aggregate compiled by bundestagwahlumfrage.de, drawing on INSA, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, Verian, Allensbach, and Forsa, places the AfD at 28 percent and CDU/CSU at 20.6 percent across polls taken between September 22 and 26. Every institute puts the AfD first; the gap ranges from five to ten points depending on the pollster.
The seat arithmetic adds pressure. With FDP at 4 percent and BSW at 3 percent both below the five-percent Bundestag entry threshold, parties currently failing to enter parliament together hold 13 percent of votes. That compression means a parliamentary majority is reachable at roughly 44 percent of the vote, nius.de calculates. On current polling, CDU/CSU and AfD combined would reach 48 percent. CDU/CSU, SPD, and the Greens together would also reach 48 percent. The governing coalition reaches 33 percent.
The Greens gained one point to 15 percent. The Linke, despite its strong result at Berlin's state election, lost one point nationally to 10 percent. SPD, Greens, and Linke together reached 39 percent, the highest combined reading for that trio in the current legislative period, halleon.de reports. On the projected seat distribution at bundestagwahlumfrage.de, those three parties together hold 282 seats, short of the 316 needed for a majority.
Chancellor Merz has held office since May 6, 2025. The next federal election is not scheduled until autumn 2029. The INSA series shows CDU/CSU at 19 percent now against 28.5 percent on election day, a loss of 9.5 points. The AfD has moved from 20.8 percent to 29 percent over the same period.
The coalition controls 378 of 630 Bundestag seats. The polls say Germany has moved elsewhere.
Published September 27, 2026 · Frisian News