29,000: September Jobs Fall to Less Than a Third of the 90,000 Forecast
October 3, 2026 · Frisian News
Photo: Wikimedia Commons
The US economy added only 29,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in September 2026, well below the 90,000 forecast. Revisions to July and August removed a further 60,000 jobs from the books.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday that the US economy added 29,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in September, less than a third of the 90,000 that economists polled by LSEG had forecast, according to Fox Business.
The miss was not a rounding error. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had placed their estimate at 84,000, CNBC reported; those polled by LSEG put theirs at 90,000. Either way, the actual count fell roughly two-thirds short. Private payrolls came in at 46,000 against an expected 85,000, Fox Business noted.
The September figure did not arrive alone. The Bureau of Labor Statistics revised July's total from a gain of 21,000 to a loss of 10,000, and cut August from 162,000 to 133,000, Fox Business reported. Those two adjustments together removed 60,000 jobs that had previously been counted, according to CNBC. The three-month picture is considerably weaker than the headline figures suggested a month ago.
Unemployment rose from 4.1 to 4.2 percent, above the 4.1 percent economists had expected, Fox Business reported. Average hourly earnings rose just 0.1 percent in September, leaving the 12-month gain at 3.0 percent, the lowest annual wage growth since May 2021, CNBC reported. "Wage growth fell to a new 5-year low and is being wiped out entirely by inflation," Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, told CNBC.
Healthcare led the gains with 17,000 new jobs, construction added 11,000 and manufacturing 9,000, according to CNBC. Government employment fell by 17,000, temporary help services lost 11,000, and information services shed 10,000. Financial activities contracted by 7,000 and have now shed 129,000 jobs since a peak in May 2025, Fox Business reported.
The report is, as The American Conservative noted, the last before November's election. The Federal Reserve meets on October 27 and 28. The CME FedWatch tool showed a 79.5 percent probability the Fed would hold rates steady in October, up from 35.8 percent only a week earlier, according to Fox Business. Thomas Simons, chief US economist at Jefferies, wrote in a note that the number was "the nail in the coffin for an October hike," CNBC reported.
Markets rose on the weak data. The S&P 500 gained 0.96 percent by mid-morning, the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.61 percent, and the Nasdaq climbed 1.63 percent, according to Fox Business. Traders were pricing in a Fed pause, which lifted equities even as the underlying employment figures disappointed.
Vanguard senior economist Adam Schickling told Fox Business that "hiring is subdued, layoffs remain remarkably low, and month-to-month payroll figures are likely to keep sending mixed signals." Phil Camporeale, chief investment strategist at JPMorgan Wealth Management, said the combination of weak jobs, negative revisions, and lower wage growth was "further evidence that the labor market is not a source of inflationary pressure."
Published October 3, 2026 · Frisian News